Bank of America makes major reset to Intel stock price target

On June 11, Intel (INTC) received a Wall Street revamp that could flip the script on its stock performance, according to a research note shared with me at TheStreet.

Investors had been bracing for more skepticism around Intel’s turnaround. 

The company still faces fierce pressure from Nvidia, AMD, and Arm-based chip designs, while its foundry strategy remains one of the most expensive bets in semiconductors.

But Bank of America flipped the script.

The firm double-upgraded Intel to Buy from Underperform and raised its price target to $135 from $96 on the back of healthier visibility in server CPUs and external foundry demand.

Additionally, the bank now sees Intel’s 2030 earnings power far above its prior view, helped by agentic AI systems and a much larger CPU market.

That begs the question: Intel’s tremendous opportunity is growing, but so is the pressure to prove it.

Why Bank of America made a rare Intel stock reversal

Bank of America’s new call on Intel stock was essentially a full reversal.

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The call also stands out because of who made it.

Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya is one of the more closely watched chip analysts on Wall Street. 

The TipRanks profile shows Arya ranked No. 83 out of 12,284 Wall Street analysts, with a 63% success rate and an average return per rating of 28.60%.

For perspective, Arya had previously not been a loud Intel bull. His previous BofA stance was Underperform with a $96 price target. The new report moves Intel to Buy and lifts the target to $135.

The old view was built around caution.

Intel still had to prove it could stabilize its core CPU business, execute on advanced manufacturing, and turn its foundry ambitions into real outside customer demand.

BofA now sees more visibility in that path.

The firm pointed to a much larger server CPU opportunity tied to artificial intelligence, especially as agentic AI systems create more demand for CPUs that can manage workloads, memory, and tool integration.

It also highlighted potential external foundry opportunities involving advanced packaging, wafers, and future customer engagements.

Consequently, BofA now sees Intel’s 2030 earnings power above $6 per share.

Though execution remains critical, it’s clear that Wall Street’s Intel debate just changed in a big way.

What changed inside Bank of America’s Intel forecast

The biggest change was the earnings math behind the rating.

Bank of America now sees Intel with more than $6 in 2030 earnings power, up from its prior $3 to $4 view. That is a major reset because it changes Intel from a near-term turnaround stock into a longer-term AI infrastructure and foundry earnings story.

The firm’s new model assumes Intel’s products’ revenue can climb from $55 billion in 2026 to $86.1 billion by 2030. 

Within that, its data center and AI business are expected to reach $43.7 billion, helped by roughly a 25% share of a $170 billion server CPU market.

The foundry forecast changed even more sharply. 

BofA sees foundry revenue rising from $1.1 billion in 2026 to $47.1 billion by 2030, driven by wafers, advanced packaging, Apple-related opportunities, MediaTek TPU work, and Terafab engagements.

Hence, BofA is now modeling Intel as a much bigger 2030 earnings machine.

Why Intel’s foundry bet suddenly matters more

Intel’s foundry business has been one of the hardest parts of the turnaround for investors to believe in.

The company has spent heavily to build advanced manufacturing capacity, but the key question has always been whether outside customers would actually trust Intel with major chip production. 

Bank of America’s new forecast gives that part of the story more weight.

The firm expects Intel’s foundry revenue to rise from $1.1 billion in 2026 to $47.1 billion by 2030. That figure essentially makes it arguably the biggest driver of Intel’s future earnings power.

BofA pointed to potential opportunities tied to Apple M-Series wafers, MediaTek TPU wafers, advanced packaging, Terafab engagements, and other ARM-based server CPU work.

Foundry success would give Intel something it has lacked for years: a second major growth engine beyond its own chips.

The biggest risks still hanging over Intel stock

Even with Bank of America’s more bullish forecast, Intel’s comeback still has several clear pressure points.

• Foundry execution remains the biggest test. Intel has to prove its 18A and future 14A manufacturing nodes can ramp with strong yields and attract real outside wafer customers.
• CPU competition is getting tougher. AMD remains aggressive in servers, while Arm-based and custom chips from major cloud players could limit Intel’s share gains.
• AI spending could cool. BofA’s forecast depends partly on a much larger AI server CPU market. If AI capex slows, Intel’s upside case becomes harder to defend.
• The PC market is still mature. Client computing remains Intel’s largest revenue base, so weak PC demand could offset progress elsewhere.
• Valuation now requires execution. BofA’s $135 target assumes Intel can grow into a far bigger 2030 earnings profile, leaving less room for disappointment.

What investors should watch after Intel’s target reset

For investors, the Bank of America switches up how Intel is judged.

For perspective, according to Seeking Alpha, Intel stock has been under pressure over the past month, losing 10% of its value alongside other chip stocks.

Over the past six months, though, it has returned 196%.

Nevertheless, the new BofA bull case depends on whether Intel can win a bigger role in AI infrastructure, where investors have been willing to pay higher valuations for companies tied to data centers, chips, and advanced manufacturing.

Speaking of valuation, Intel stock trades at over 107 times forward non-GAAP earnings, 328% above the sector median according to Seeking Alpha.

That makes Intel more interesting, but also more exposed.

If BofA is right, Intel could attract investors who have been crowded into Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and other AI winners. 

But the higher target also raises the bar. Intel now has to prove that server CPUs, foundry revenue, and advanced nodes can move from forecast to reality.

Intel’s analyst consensus points to an average price target of $93.12, implying about 20% downside, while the Street’s range is wide, from $45 on the low end to $150 on the high end.

The unresolved question is whether Intel can execute quickly enough to justify its new AI-era valuation.

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